Elon Musk, the visionary entrepreneur known for his ventures in space exploration and electric vehicles, has made another bold proclamation about the future of artificial intelligence.
In a recent interview, Musk predicted that AI will surpass human intelligence by the year 2025, marking a significant milestone in the evolution of technology.
According to the Tesla Chief, new artificial intelligence models will be more advanced than human intelligence by the end of the year, provided that hardware and power supplies can keep up with the needs of the rapidly advancing technology.
“My guess is that we’ll have AI that is smarter than any one human probably around the end of next year,” stated the billionaire businessman behind SpaceX, X, and Tesla. In an interview with Nicolai Tangen, the CEO of Norges Bank Investment Management, Elon Musk made the bold prediction that over the next five years, artificial intelligence (AI) skills will likely surpass those of all humans.
Elon Musk’s accelerated AI prediction: Factors and forecasts
Musk has continuously expressed optimism about the advancement of “artificial general intelligence,” or AI tools that are so strong they can outperform the most skilled people in any field. However, Monday’s prognosis is earlier than the timetables he and others have previously predicted.
Last year he projected that “full” AGI would be realised by 2029. Musk made some audacious forecasts that haven’t yet come true, like launching self-driving Tesla cars and setting foot on Mars with a rocket.
The field of artificial intelligence has advanced more quickly than anticipated in the last 18 months thanks to several innovations, such as the introduction of video production tools and more intelligent chatbots. AGI could be achieved by 2030, according to a prediction made earlier this year by Demis Hassabis, co-founder of Google’s DeepMind.
A supply shortage of microchips, mostly from Nvidia, which is necessary for training and operating AI models, has hampered the rate of advancement. Though fresh models are already testing other data centre equipment and the electrical grid, Musk claimed that those restrictions were starting to loosen.
“Last year it was chip constrained . . . people could not get enough Nvidia chips. This year it’s transitioning to a voltage transformer supply. In a year or two [the constraint is] just electricity supply,” he stated.
Elon Musk’s AI ambitions: From caution to competition
Musk’s willingness to enter the AI race contrasts with his well-publicised position from the previous year when he called for a halt to the advancement of AI. He demanded an immediate stop to training any system more potent than OpenAI’s GPT-4, the industry-leading model, and warned of the “profound risks to society and humanity” presented by extremely powerful AI tools.
A second iteration of the Grok model, “which we think should be better than GPT-4,” is being trained by Musk’s AI start-up, xAI.
The Tesla CEO disclosed that approximately 20,000 Nvidia H100 GPUs were needed for training the Grok 2 model and that the number of chips needed for subsequent iterations will likely reach 100,000. But he stressed that in the coming years, electrical supply would also play a major role in the growth of AI, in addition to chip shortages.
Over the past year, Musk has dedicated more time and resources to xAI. According to people with knowledge of the process, he is trying to acquire billions of dollars from investors in the US, Middle East, and Hong Kong to compete with OpenAI in a funding round that would value the business at $18 billion.
Over the past ten years, Musk has taken a leading, and frequently controversial, part in the creation of new AI tools.
He was among the first members of OpenAI in 2015 but departed the firm in 2018 due to a disagreement with co-founder and CEO Sam Altman in the course of the study.
Musk filed a breach of contract lawsuit against OpenAI and Altman in March, claiming that they had violated the startup’s professed goal of developing AI for the good of humanity. OpenAI has categorically refuted Musk’s allegations.
Final thoughts
Musk’s prediction about AI surpassing human intelligence by 2025 underscores the transformative potential of AI and its ethical implications. While debates about timelines and capabilities persist, there is no denying the profound impact of AI on society and the economy.
As we navigate the complexities of AI advancement, responsible innovation, and ethical stewardship are imperative to harness AI’s benefits while mitigating its risks.
The future of AI will be shaped by collective efforts to ensure that technology serves humanity’s best interests.
(Tashia Bernardus)