In a historic shift, the world is poised to experience a decline in population for the first time since the devastating Black Death pandemic.
At little over eight billion, the world’s population is beginning to slow down due to the decrease in the number of children women are having. This could lead to a decline in population within a few decades.
For the first time since the Black Death, a bubonic plague pandemic that killed up to 50 million people in the middle of the thirteenth century, including as much as a third of Europe’s population, fewer people would be on the earth.
Historians estimate that during that period, the world’s population decreased from approximately 400 million to 350 million people. It is the only point in time when this has happened to mankind.
Women are expected to have 2.1 children each on average to sustain population growth, which is known as the “total fertility rate”, and as of 2021, it stood at 2.23 worldwide.
Global birth rates plummet: A precarious future of declining populations
However, experts claim that the ‘total fertility rate’ has been declining steadily since 1950 when it was 4.84. They estimate that by 2100, it will drop to 1.59 and 1.83 in 2050 and 2050, respectively.
This implies that, by 2050, birth rates in 155 out of 204 nations will be below what is needed to maintain current levels of population growth.
Over one-half of all newborns born worldwide will be born in sub-Saharan African countries, which will comprise 198 countries by the year 2100, or 97% of the world’s total population.
The average number of children per woman is less than one in thirteen nations, including Bhutan, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and South Korea.
The UK’s fertility rate, which will be 1.49 in 2021, is lower than the average for high-income nations like it.
According to the study, it dropped from 2.19 in 1950 and would further decline to 1.38 and 1.30 in the ensuing 25 and 75 years.
If there isn’t any migration, the current population of about 67 million will become more and more lopsided toward older generations before declining when the oldest individuals pass away.
Britain’s falling birth rates: Implications and challenges ahead
Real-time evidence of Britain’s declining birth rates is the fact that fewer students are applying for once-coveted spots in primary and secondary schools, according to recent data.
Additionally, more and more women are using egg freezing, which has gained attention lately because of calls from health experts for reproductive clinics to provide more information about the likelihood of success.
The Tory MP Miriam Cates stated last week that women shouldn’t be delaying having children so long and that they are being “exploited” by the “false promise” that egg freezing will be successful.
Experts predict that when the elderly outweigh the young and put more strain on the employment and health systems, the effects of a declining population will be “immense” for society.
Only 26 nations will have higher birth rates than deaths by 2100, with “most of the world transitioning into natural population decline.”
The researchers noted that to address labor shortages, there may also be a rise in immigration from nations where there is still a “baby boom.” However, this immigration will need to be controlled.
Declining fertility rates “will completely reconfigure the global economy and the international balance of power and will necessitate reorganizing societies,” according to Dr Natalia Bhattacharjee, co-author of the study and lead research scientist at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, US.
“When there is intense competition for migrants to sustain economic growth and as sub-Saharan Africa’s baby boom continues apace, global recognition of the challenges surrounding migration and global aid networks are going to be all the more critical.”
The globe is “facing staggering social change through the 21st century,” according to Professor Stein Emil Vollset, senior author from IHME.
“In many ways, declining fertility rates are a success story,” he stated. “They reflect not only the availability of more readily available contraception but also the fact that many women are choosing to postpone or have fewer children, as well as increased access to work and education opportunities.”
The researchers estimated changing fertility rates using important indicators such as women’s education, contraceptive use, child mortality, and urbanization; nevertheless, these projections could be impacted by regional laws and global calamities like pandemics and wars.
Professor Melinda Mills, who oversees the demography research unit at the University of Oxford, stated: “Reorganizing societies and being ready for a smaller and older population are imperative.”
She remarked, “from impacted migration patterns and food security to the very infrastructures of countries.” “Changes in voting and culture also have an impact on infrastructure, including schools, housing, transportation, health care, and pensions.”
All in all
The projected decline in the global population represents a significant demographic shift with profound implications for societies worldwide. While population decline poses challenges in terms of labor shortages, ageing populations, and social welfare systems, it also presents opportunities for sustainable development, environmental conservation, and redefining societal norms.
By adopting proactive policies and strategies that support families, encourage fertility, and promote immigration, countries can navigate the demographic transition toward a declining population more effectively.
Ultimately, addressing the complex challenges of population decline requires a holistic and collaborative approach that prioritizes the well-being and prosperity of current and future generations.
(Tashia Bernardus)